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Природный газ в Штатах пал к новым низам

07 апр 2012 в 00:00:00 Просмотров: 2420

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Good afternoon. The political process last week, continued to grow in a very bizarre way. In Pakistan, the court sentenced him to fifteen months in prison (and subsequent deportation to Saudi Arabia and Yemen) three wives and two daughters of the deceased bin Laden an enemy of humanity - women convicted of ... illegal stay in the country that the allegedly able to identify only now, at the same time the authorities want Pakistan to condemn and shtatovskih paratroopers, as had penetrated into the country illegally - but those wretch, immediately after the assassination of bin Laden were quick to slip away and hardly wish to appear before the menacing eyes of the Islamabad administration of justice. Do not run out of news about the successes of a young Libyan democracy - after the overthrow of the dictatorship of the damned fighting between Arabs and blacks, and Tuareg have become permanent: last week they killed over 150 people - so that market analysts may conclude that the mortality rate reached a level of 8,000 per annum. A similar fate for Syria to seek thence fighters against tyranny - in commemoration of what their leader by the name of Latrine at the "Friends of Syria" solemnly proclaimed that "the government starts to come to the end of Assad."

Where civilized achievements of Kosovo: the main fighter against corruption in this oasis of well-being arrested on charges of corruption ... - quirky Albanian Mustafi, no fool, he decided to earn their status and became innocently extort money from corrupt officials and businessmen faced by the promotion. Adventures in a French hotel in New York are becoming more dramatic - Academician Dekuen found dead in his room: and he was completely naked, drunk and (at the time of death) is not alone - it turns out the scandalous policies, Strauss-Kahn at the time still lucky that it only ended with arrest, and (quite successful for him) by the court. Fresh made a break for freedom in the United States corporation Transocean - according to the information of its employees, the firm conducted psychological testing of personnel, and their outcomes (ie, the identified skills, preferences and other details) signified by different colors: in this case the resulting paint marks every employee should have been hang on the doors of their rooms and ... on your own uniforms (ie wear them all the time for yourself) - with envy such success of corporatism would be ashamed to cry in his grave, and Alfred Rosenberg himself.

Illustration: Artem Popov

Tickets for the meal

Money markets. ECB, Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia did not change the settings of monetary policy: in all cases, despite ritual declarations of readiness to respond to the possible danger of inflation, it was obvious that the main concern about the weakness of the economies tsentrobankirov - so the future easing of the monetary policy looks more real than tightening. In general, the same can be said about the U.S. Federal Reserve - but there is a caveat: before entering the protocol of the last meeting (Tuesday), Goldman Sachs analyst said that waiting for a new round of quantitative easing in the second quarter of this year - but if so, then this issue should be raised at each meeting of the Fed, but no fresh clues on the issue of the protocol did not contain - just repeated the thesis of the memorandum (following the meeting) about the improvement in the economy, and thus very disappointed markets. Review ThomsonReuters highlighted the problem of global investment banks - the main sources of their earnings shrink: uncertainty in the global economy reduces the propensity for mergers and acquisitions, and IPO - and even government bond market activity caused by the infusion of the ECB seems to have slowed down. This once again confirmed the results of the Spanish auction on Wednesday - have been bad place: the demand is low, but yields have jumped - it seems a freebie coming to an end, and the market immediately threw the interest on the bonds had Spain to levels of maximum in December. In Italy, the Treasury deficit cuts are not as good as we would like the authorities, and in Greece is thriving barter - even a theater (of Thessaloniki) offers to pay for the tickets is not money but food that promises to give the poor. The crisis ...

Foreign exchange markets. Authorities BRICS countries have once again pledged to bypass the dollar in mutual payments, content with their own currencies - it's all good, but so far only in words. Also interesting is the idea of ​​Australia and New Zealand - whose superiors are considering switching to a single currency: but, according to Telegraph, a bad example for the euro zone cools the ardor of a few reformers - with their money, more reliable, it will live. Forex dollar showed gruel competitors - all except the yen, which was even stronger, however, the magnitude of movements, as before, is very modest - that is, nothing dramatic is still going on.

Source: SmartTrade

Stock markets. Expectations of an early launch of a new program of quantitative easing in the United States did not materialize the protocol of the last Fed meeting - in response to the leading stock exchanges hurt sat down, but not too much. In contrast, the Chinese, who returned after a long weekend, looking beautiful rose of official data on business activity in March. In general, however, the market is a bit interesting - and trading volumes are quite modest for several months.

Commodity markets. Oil fell down a little - partly on disappointment over the issue, partly because stocks have soared in the U.S., partly due to lower consumption of gasoline in the U.S. at 4.5% per year (in January) to a minimum since 2001. All this has helped reduce the price of gasoline (the joy of Obama) - everywhere except in Russia, where the motor fuel again began to rise in price: the election-is gone - therefore, people can once again succumbing. Natural gas in the U.S. fell to a new lower classes - its real (inflation-adjusted) price broke through the bottom of the beginning of 1973 and found herself in the winter of 1947 levels, ie 65-year-old. Industrial metals, too, sat down a little bit - and lay down precious gold came right up to around $ 1,600 per ounce. Corn and sugar were in place; beans, forage and oil continued to rise in price, but milk, meat, fruit, coffee and cocoa - cheaper, cotton varies in the same price range.

Source: Ministry of Energy and the U.S. Labor Department, the independent evaluation

Innovation Summit

Asia and Oceania. Chinese indexes of business activity in March plunged the audience into thought: official newspaper reported on the rapid rise as a manufacturing sector and services sector - however, according to HSBC, the production remains in the area of ​​recession and expansion of the service sector slowed down, and who then believe?Meanwhile, the government is preparing the markets for the difficulties - to his knowledge, the GDP growth in January-March amounted to 8.4% per year, and is at least the crisis in 2009, a total of 2012 planned increase of 7.5% - the worst in 8 years.In an attempt to revive the slowing economy, the authorities have taken various measures - including in the area of ​​financial regulation: for example, weak control over the operations for the promotion of capital inflows of foreign money into local assets, in addition, Premier Wen lashed out at four major Bank of China (mol the money they get "too easy") - and hinted at reforming the banking system as a whole. In Japan, the central bank's review of "Tankan" in the first quarter came out worse than expected - and activity, and income (-1.1% per year), and capital expenditures (-1.3%) trade surplus in March went out again into a deficit, the salary increased in February due to excess "leap" of the day, buying cars are restored - as well as consumer sentiment. In India, business activity (PMI) continues to weaken - on this path, and returned to Australia, where all sectors find themselves in the area of ​​a recession, the trade balance deficit in the Green continent the second consecutive month (exports fell to an annual minimum), inflation is losing weight, building permits tumbled, and retail trade lagged behind price increases. Across the region, the situation continues to deteriorate.

Europe. In Britain, industrial output in February was unable to play, even January's fall - and the manufacturing sector has fallen by 1.0% per month, and in both cases, the annual dynamics of confidence in negative territory (-2.3% and -1.4% respectively), however, the Chamber of Commerce report on orders in March is generally a relatively optimistic. In Germany, production in February fell by 1.3% per month, completely killing the January increase of 1.2% - and went to the minus (1.0%) to the same month last year, industrial orders added 0.3% after a feeble dam by 1.8% a month earlier -because of this 12-month dynamics become threatening (now -6.1%). A similar picture is in the business activity (PMI): a recession in the eurozone and the UK improved - as well as in Switzerland. In February and March inflation elsewhere in Europe continued to attack - however, the annual increase does not increase or decrease: a year ago the price was rolled forward even more. Unemployment is rising across the euro zone - the level reached 10.8%, with a maximum in June 1997. Swiss retail sales slowed down, and it falls in the euro area - unfortunately, there is only data from 1995, but statistics are available in Germany since 1960 - and if you make a correction for the understatement of inflation, it turns out that the real sales per capita have fallen back to levels summer of 1969, with the peak in 1991, they fell by more than 40%. The collapse of the number of new cars registered in Italy (-26.7% in March to March 2011) complements the picture of the dead man in demand in the region.

Source: OECD, independent evaluation

America. In Brazil, in February, industrial production remains in the red in the annual dynamics, active in all sectors of the economy slowing down - in these circumstances, the authorities take immediate steps to prevent a recession: cut taxes on labor, built up public procurement of local goods and increased lending to the manufacturing industries. In the U.S. industrial orders in February, played the January decline, making their annual dynamics (as amended by the distortion of inflation and per capita terms) back in positive territory at 2.0%. Activity in the manufacturing sector has grown, and in the services sector has slowed down - in both cases, new orders declined, and employment, in contrast, has improved. The latter circumstance is confirmed by other reports: According to Challenger, planned layoffs are fewer, but hiring has intensified and the number of recipients of unemployment benefits last week fell by 16 thousand (though the previous two weeks have revised up by 17 thousand), according to ADP, employment in the private sector continues to swell. According to the Ministry of Labor, in March, rose and employment, and unemployment - as usual, the statistics thrown out of the workforce a lot of people (333 thousand per month only), the share of employment fell in the population - at the same time meters long-term unemployment is also down. In Canada, employment unexpectedly jumped by cutting unemployment by 0.2%. In the United States since the beginning of the year construction spending tumbled active, in Canada, building permits in February soared to 7.5% - but the crash was in January by 11.4%. Buying cars in the U.S. unexpectedly weakened in March (-4.7% in February to a seasonally adjusted corrections) sales statistics in the stores has been distorted by the approach of Easter - but overall, it seems, demand, and then began to gradually slow down.

Russia. Federal State Statistics Service said GDP for 2011: deflator increased from +15.4% to +15.8%, causing real economic growth in the October-December, weakened from 4.9% to 4.8% per year, but overall for the year remained the same speaker (+4.3%) - we go on the growth of 2.5-3.0%, which is well within the usual semi-official picture of the overstatement. Russia's foreign debt in 2011 increased by 11.5% - is significantly higher than in 2010 (+4.9%) and even more so in 2009 (-2.8%), respectively - and in the first quarter of this year, debt has swelled by 3.7% and exceeded 560 billion. bucks. But the net outflow of private capital, even accelerated - in the January-March it was 35.1 billion dollars against 8.19 billion in October-December and 35.0 billion in the first quarter of last year, there are different projections - optimistic the other deputy president of the Bank of Russia Ulyukayev, all the time promising trend reversal "in a month 'and the zero dynamics for the whole year; MED denotes improvement in the second half and ready to flee the capital of 20 billion per year, the Ministry of Finance - 40 billion in consumer prices in March swelled by 0.6% per month and 3.7% a year - from July utility bills will increase this figure. In politics, mayoral elections were marked Yaroslavl, where the candidate has lost EdRo united opposition; Shoigu flowed in the Moscow region governor, and desired to leave Serdyukov as Defense Minister - well, something happy. Others sadly plane crashed due to savings in the processing of anti-icing; tower in Moscow, "the Federation" spectacularly burned on the background of the symbolic banner, "Sell the form home" on her wall. The government wants to lure the Group of Eight (in 2014 it will meet in Russia) bound to Skolkovo - apparently chayut "Innovation Summit", however, is the idea of ​​Bears - it is hoped that Putin is still not so stupid ...

Have a nice week!

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