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The View From The Tower

23 мая 2018 в 11:00:00 Просмотров: 340

Overnight Snapshot

The Day Ahead

0830hrs UK         SW Riksbank Financial Stability Report
0900hrs UK         EU EuroZone Manufacturing PMI (est 56.06 vs previous 56.2)
0900hrs UK         AU Reserve Bank of Australia’s Philip Lowe speaks in Sydney
0900hrs UK         EU EuroZone Services PMI (est 54.68 vs previous 54.7)
0900hrs UK         EU EuroZone Composite PMI (est 55.06 vs previous 55.1)
0930hrs UK         UK CPI (est 0.45%mom / 2.47%yoy vs previous 0.1% / 2.5%)
0930hrs UK         UK Retail Price Index (est 279.77 vs previous 278.3)
0930hrs UK         UK RPI (est 0.48%mom / 3.39%yoy vs previous 0.1% / 3.3%)
0930hrs UK         UK PPI Output (est 0.24%mom / 2.33%yoy vs previous 0.2% / 2.4%)
1000hrs UK         EU ECB Supervisory Board Member Ignazio Angeloni speaks in Brussels
1100hrs UK         Uk CBI Distributive Trades Survey
1445hrs UK         US Manufacturing PMI (est 56.43 vs previous 56.5)
1445hrs UK         US Services PMI (est 54.81 vs previous 54.6)
1445hrs Uk         US Composite PMI (previous 54.9)
1500hrs UK         US New Home Sales (est 678.02K/-2.3% vs previous 694K/4.0%)
1500hrs UK         EU EuroZone Consumer Confidence (est 0.35 vs previous 0.4)
1530hrs UK         US DOE Crude Oil Inventories (est -2071K vs previous -1404K)
1530hrs UK         US DOE Gasoline Inventories (est -1415.9K vs previous -3790K)
1900hrs UK         US FOMC Meeting Minutes
1915hrs UK         US Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari speaks in North Dakota
Earnings releases from US include Lowes, Target Corp and L Brands
In the UK we see Marks & Sparks and ZPG (Zoopla)

The Day So Far….

STOCKS: US stocks dropped yesterday, weighed by lingering uncertainty over the outcome of trade talks between the USA & China and declines in energy and industrial names. President Trump yesterday said he was not pleased with progress in the talks with China and earlier said there was no deal yet with Chine on ZTE Corp where estimates of at least $3bln losses from the US sanctions are common. Trump floated a plan to fine ZTE and shake up the management after the US administration considered rolling back the more severe penalties imposed for violating US sanctions by shipping goods to Iran. Trump also said there was a substantial chance his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may not take place as planned on 12th June. Tesla fell 3.3% yesterday sending the shares to their lowest close since April after consumer reports highlighted big flaws in their Model 3 car. This weighed on the Nasdaq100, which closed down 11.91 at 6893.62, whilst the S&P500 closed 8.57 points lower at 2724.44 after spending most of the day in positive territory, with the Dow trading in the red nearly all day and ending -178.88 at 24834.41
Asia-Pacific stocks languished after US President Trump noted that his summit with North Korea's Kim may be delayed. Worries over the US-China trade situation also dented risk, which allowed the JPY to move higher.- The Nikkei 225 shed 1.25% with all the major sectors trading lower on the day, although it was the energy space that added the most weight. The sell off was very sharp mid morning with stocks trading sideways for the rest of the day searching for fesh impetus. The Hang Seng lost 1.00%, following a similar pattern, once again the energy sector lead the way lower, although the IT sector managed to trade higher. China's Shanghai Composite opened in the red and slipped steadily further down over the day. The ASX 200 was the relative outperformer, only losing 9 points after starting the day positively as the energy sector once again added the most weight. The real estate sector was the largest gainer.  US index futures also came under pressure, with the mini Dow shedding 80 points before recovering slightly, and the e-mini S&P currently 6.25 points lower.

US TREASURYS: Tsys have edged higher, after they managed print fresh session highs as USDJPY moved to lows. While there is little apparent in terms of fresh headline risk it is worth noting that Trump has reintroduced questions re: the Chinese trade situation & North Korea over the last 24 hours which may be hampering risk. The space now operates just off of best levels. Eurodollar futures have also edged higher.

OIL: Oil traded lower overnight as risk assets took a hit hit. WTI lost $0.25 to trade at $71.95, while Brent lost $0.50 to trade at $79.05.  Reports suggest that the latest API crude inventory data pointed to a draw in headline crude stocks, while the body estimated that Cushing & distillate stocks also fell, while API estimated an uptick in Gasoline stocks. Traders now await today's DoE release. - Tuesday saw some source reports doing the rounds. One source noted that Russia wouldn't rule out extending the OPEC+ production deal into 2019, while another suggested that OPEC may decide to raise oil output in June owing to concerns surrounding Venezuelan & Iranian supply.

GOLD: Gold managed to register gains of just over $1 to trade at $1292/oz in Asia-Pacific dealing.

FOREX: JPY was the biggest winner as broad-based risk aversion hit mkts. The JPY crosses were sold throughout the session. USDJPY now sits at 110.50, with some $2.01bln worth of 110.00 & $1.46bln worth of 111.00 options set to roll off at today's 10AM NY cut. The DXY printed gains elsewhere (ex-CHF), with the Antipodeans coming under pressure after a soft AU com. construction work headline print & after the RBNZ noted that it would be open to non-standard MonPol measures if needed, although it doesn't foresee a sharp decline in the OCR. USDTRY surged higher, with some attributing the move to the Japanese retail exiting the TRYJPY cross. USDTRY is back from highs.


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